Here we give a proof that random walk is recurrent for 𝑝=1/2 and not for other values of 𝑝.
From Shreve’s older book “Stochastic calculus and financial applications” p. 6 we have:
Let 𝑝 be the probability of a step to the right, 𝑋𝑖=+1, and 𝑞=1−𝑝.
Let 𝑓(𝑘) be the probability of reaching 𝐴 before −𝐵 given that 𝑆0=𝑘. Then 𝑓(𝑘)=𝑝𝑓(𝑘+1)+𝑞𝑓(𝑘−1)
In terms of Δ𝑓(𝑘):=𝑓(𝑘+1)−𝑓(𝑘) this says Δ𝑓(𝑘)=(𝑞/𝑝)Δ𝑓(𝑘−1)
so Δ𝑓(𝑘+𝑗)=(𝑞/𝑝)𝑗Δ𝑓(𝑘)
and so 𝑓(𝑘)=𝑓(−𝐵)+𝑘−1∑𝑖=−𝐵Δ𝑓(𝑖)=0+𝑘−1∑𝑖=−𝐵Δ𝑓(𝑖)=𝑘+𝐵−1∑𝑗=0Δ𝑓(𝑗−𝐵) =Δ𝑓(−𝐵)𝑘+𝐵−1∑𝑗=0(𝑞/𝑝)𝑗 =𝑓(−𝐵+1)𝑘+𝐵−1∑𝑗=0(𝑞/𝑝)𝑗 =𝑓(−𝐵+1)(𝑞/𝑝)𝑘+𝐵−1(𝑞/𝑝)−1
Since 𝑓(𝐴)=1 we can evaluate 𝑓(−𝐵+1) as (𝑞/𝑝)−1(𝑞/𝑝)𝐴+𝐵−1.
Then 𝑓(0)=(𝑞/𝑝)−1(𝑞/𝑝)𝐴+𝐵−1(𝑞/𝑝)𝐵−1(𝑞/𝑝)−1
Thus
𝑃(𝑆𝑛hits𝐴before−𝐵∣𝑆0=0)=(𝑞/𝑝)𝐵−1(𝑞/𝑝)𝐴+𝐵−1
Setting 𝐴=𝐵 we have 𝑃(𝑆𝑛hits𝐴before−𝐴∣𝑆0=0)=(𝑞/𝑝)𝐴−1(𝑞/𝑝)2𝐴−1=1(𝑞/𝑝)𝐴+1
Let us consider the probability of never hitting −𝐴. This is the same as hitting 𝐴 before −𝐴, then 3𝐴 before −𝐴 (so in effect 2𝐴 before −2𝐴), then 7𝐴 before −𝐴 (so in effect 4𝐴 before −4𝐴), and so on, so we get ∏𝑘=1,2,4,…1(𝑞/𝑝)𝑘𝐴+1=∞∏𝑛=01(𝑞/𝑝)𝐴2𝑛+1
Let us set 𝐴=2𝑎 where 𝑎≥0, 𝑎 an integer (where 𝑎=0 is perhaps most interesting), so we are looking at ∞∏𝑛=01(𝑞/𝑝)2𝑛+𝑎+1
If 𝑝≤1/2 then 𝑞/𝑝≥1 and so this is ≤∞∏𝑛=0112𝑛+𝑎+1=0
since the factors are bounded below 1. But if 𝑝>1/2 then 𝛼:=𝑞/𝑝<1 and we have the equivalent conditions
∞∏𝑛=01𝛼2𝑛+𝑎+1>0log∞∏𝑛=01𝛼2𝑛+1>−∞∑log1𝛼2𝑛+1>−∞∑log(𝛼2𝑛+1)<∞
But ln(𝑥)≤𝑥−1 for all 𝑥>0, so ∑log(𝛼2𝑛+1)<∑𝛼2𝑛<∑𝛼𝑛<∞
Moreover as 𝑎→∞ the nonzero product actually approaches 1. Thus the probability that each negative number will eventually be reached is zero when 𝑝>1/2. Similarly, if 𝑝<1/2 then the probability that each positive number will eventually be reached is zero.
Professor of Mathematics, University of Hawaii at Manoa